Read the match before
it's even kicked off.
Win probabilities, expected goals and confidence intervals — built on a Poisson + ELO engine. Coverage spans the top-5 European leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) and every major international tournament.
Coverage
THE PROCESS · IN 3 STEPS
From any fixture to a calibrated prediction.
World Cup 2026 is the MVP — fully live today. Top-5 league predictions launch next.
Pick any fixture
Top-5 European leagues (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) plus every major international tournament — World Cup, Euros, Copa, AFCON, qualifiers.
The engine reads the data
Poisson goal model + ELO ratings + 25% market blend, calibrated against historical results.
You get a calibrated prediction
W/D/L probabilities, expected goals, 95% confidence interval, and a most-likely scoreline.
THE MODEL · LIVE
See it in action.
World Cup 2026 fixtures, predicted live by the same engine that will ship for the top-5 European leagues. Watch.
THE MODEL · For data folks
Calibration is not negotiable.
Numbers below come from the WC2026 MVP backtest. Top-5 European league calibration ships with the next release.
Calibration
When the model says 70%, it wins ~70% of the time. This chart shows how predicted vs actual line up across — international fixtures (the WC2026 MVP scope). The dashed diagonal is perfect calibration; the yellow line is the model. Club-league calibration ships next.
Methodology
Poisson goal model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. ELO ratings replayed chronologically with time-weighted recency. 25% blend with market odds when available. Calibrated weekly against historical outcomes.
Read full methodology →Accuracy by competition
MVP scope · international fixtures only
Backtest not yet computed. Run scripts/backtest_internationals.py.
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS · annotated example
Single-point predictions lie. We give you a range — every time.
Simple, transparent pricing
- ✓ 5 predictions/day
- ✓ Win probability
- ✓ Score distribution
- ✗ Season simulation
- ✗ Custom weights
- ✗ API access
- ✓ Unlimited predictions
- ✓ Win probability
- ✓ Score distribution
- ✓ Season simulation
- ✓ Custom weights
- ✗ API access
- ✓ Everything in Pro
- ✓ API access
- ✓ Tournament simulator
- ✓ Export predictions
Stop guessing. Start predicting.
The engine runs every fixture in our database. See for yourself.
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